Over the last few years, the cigar industry has experienced unprecedented sales, with global demand for cigars surpassing the cigar boom of the 1990s. Sales worldwide are soaring, so let’s delve into a breakdown of global cigar sales.

The now-defunct Ministry of Cigars conducted analyses for 2019 and 2020. All articles from the Ministry of Cigars are accessible in the database of Cigar Inspector, which includes these analyses, and we will continue the breakdown in the coming years. This task is not an exact science, as cigar-exporting countries do not track the destinations of their cigars, and production numbers are not fully transparent.

Understanding the Split between USA and Global Cigar Sales

To ascertain the percentage of cigars exported to the USA versus the rest of the world, we relied on information from the Nicaraguan Chamber of Tobacco from 2018. That year, 86% of Nicaraguan cigar exports were destined for the USA, with the remaining 14% distributed worldwide. Although these figures are outdated, we adjusted them to an 80/20 split.

No specific data were available for Honduras and the Dominican Republic. Given the Dominican Republic’s historical ties with Europe, we initially used an 82/18 split for 2019. For Honduras and other cigar-producing countries, we followed Nicaragua’s original 86/14 split, subsequently adjusting all to an 80/20 split.

This adjustment reflects the decline in Cuban cigar production. In 2019, the rest of the world consumed 157.4 million cigars, a number that has undoubtedly increased. Using the initial percentages, and accounting for the Dominican Republic’s 82/18 split, the rest of the world’s consumption would total 129.6 million cigars, considering Cuba’s production dropped by 50 million sticks.

Cuba’s Cigar Industry Amidst Global Challenges

For Cuba, the situation is straightforward: 100% of its exports are to the “rest of the world,” due to the U.S. embargo on Cuban products. Pre-COVID, Cuba produced nearly 100 million cigars annually. However, the pandemic, poor harvests, and natural disasters have significantly impacted production. Although no official figures have been released, industry experts estimate current production to be between 35 and 45 million cigars. For the purposes of this article, we will use the higher estimate of 45 million.

American Imports vs. Global Production

The Cigar Association of America estimated that the U.S. imported 467.6 million cigars in 2023, divided among Nicaragua (246.3 million), the Dominican Republic (149.2 million), Honduras (69.7 million), and 2.4 million from Costa Rica, Indonesia, the Philippines, and other cigar-producing countries.

Using an adjusted formula, the rest of the world received 61.6 million Nicaraguan cigars, 37.3 million Dominican cigars, 17.4 million Honduran cigars, 0.6 million premium cigars from other countries, and 45 million Cuban cigars, totaling a global production of 629.5 million cigars.

We have not included premium cigars made for the Chinese domestic market due to a lack of data. There is significant speculation about these figures, and Inspector X plans to visit Chinese cigar factories to observe production first-hand and gather official data. China is not only a large market for cigars but also a potential major player in production.

These figures indicate that the United States remains the largest cigar market globally, accounting for 74.3% of global cigar sales.

The Breakdown

From this data, it is clear that Nicaragua is the leading cigar-producing country, followed by the Dominican Republic. Since 2019, there have been no changes in their rankings. However, the positions of Honduras and Cuba have shifted; whereas Cuba used to produce close to 100 million cigars annually, it has now dropped to 45 million, with Honduras surpassing Cuba.

• Nicaragua: 48.9%
• Dominican Republic: 29.6%
• Honduras: 13.8%
• Cuba: 7.1%
• Others: 0.5%

Excluding the USA to examine Cuba’s market position where it is active, there is a significant shift. Cuba is no longer the market leader in the number of cigars (though it remains so in value, due to recent extreme price increases), with the Dominican Republic closely following:

• Nicaragua: 38.0%
• Cuba: 27.8%
• Dominican Republic: 23%
• Honduras: 10.7%
• Others: 0.4%

It’s worth noting that if Cuba can restore its production to pre-COVID levels, it will undoubtedly reclaim the top position, given the high demand for Cuban cigars. However, given the ongoing social unrest and tobacco shortages, it might take years for Cuba to reach production levels close to 100 million cigars again.